OIL CONSUMPTION IN NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA, EUROPE, CHINA, AND INDIA
(M BBL/D)
Source: LOTOS Group’s in-house analysis based
on International Energy Agency data, www.iea.org
LOTOS Group’s macroeconomic environment in 2018
The LOTOS Group is an active participant of the fuel market, affecting it through its operations and responding to changes that occur in the oil and gas industry. Therefore, when planning strategic development directions, LOTOS takes into account forecasts and megatrends which affect its business.
The key drivers of oil and gas prices are changes in the world’s population as well as global and regional changes in supply and demand.
Oil prices are also affected by:
Consumption increases in parallel with population growth
Over the last five decades, the world’s population has grown on average by 1.6% per year, to 7.63bn in 2018. This increase was accompanied by growth in crude oil demand (by 2.3% on average a year).
OIL CONSUMPTION IN NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA, EUROPE, CHINA, AND INDIA
Economic growth and fluctuations in supply and demand
2018 saw considerable global and regional changes in oil supply and demand. It was also a period of fast economic growth in the world. According to OECD’s computations, the world’s economy grew by 3.7%. Particularly strong economic growth could be seen in the fast-growing countries such as China and India.
GDP dynamics in 2017–2018
| 2017 | 2018 | % r/r | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global economy | 3.8% | 3.7% | -0.1% |
| Developing countries | 4.7% | 4.6% | -0.1% |
| Eurozone | 2.4% | 1.8% | -0.6% |
| US | 2.2% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| China | 6.9% | 6.6% | -0.3% |
| India | 6.7% | 7.3% | +0.6% |
Source: LOTOS Group’s in-house analysis based on World Economic Outlook Update